2022 has begun with another variant of the covid-19 virus and adds another page to the seemingly never ending epic. We have, however, so much to be thankful for. In the last one year we have developed and vaccinated over 3 billion people. I’ve been thinking about how loony that stat is. It is innovations like these that Safi Bahcall calls Loonshots and his book of the same title, explains how some companies are able to do this while others get left behind, partly due to their own previous successes.
A loonshot is a big crazy idea that people say won’t work or may work but won’t make money. It makes sense to differentiate this from disruptive innovation that Prof Clayton Christensen popularised. Those disruptions are related to a market. In that sense a loonshot can be both a disruptive innovation (that disrupts a market by first starting at the low end and then growing) or a sustaining innovation (more of the same but better).
I love this book for its historical references. I am big world war buff and this book begins with how a scientist, Vannever Bush, was assigned by the office of the President to bring new technologies to soldiers in the war. A few years before, Theodore Vail, a protege of Alexander Graham Bell and the president of Bell labs had successfully brought to market long distance telephony. There was a lot common in the way the two people operated and brought many loonshots to life. This book is about four rules, called Bush-Vail rules that help organisations and societies nurture loonshots.
A common theme in the book is using the science of phase transition and applying them to teams to trigger loonshots. The example of water becoming solid as temperature falls and becoming liquid as it increases, is the simplest phase transition. The binding energy between molecules is overtaken by entropy as the temperature increases and the phase changes. The temperature is the control parameter in this phase transition. Similarly there are other control parameters in different situations that when altered, can create phase transitions and bring out totally different effects from essentially the same set of molecules. By adding salt to snow, we decrease their melting point and thaw it. Same way, we can make small changes to teams and their structures for totally different outcomes. The Bush Vail Rules are about using this science to nurture loonshots.
Separate your soldiers from your artists. Two different teams are needed for two different roles. One is to keep up the franchise going and the other to challenge assumptions. It is necessary to internalise that innovation happens when ideas are nurtured while being protected from being shot down too quickly.
The book talks about false failures (3 deaths of a new drug) where the reason for failing isn’t reflective of the viability of something. By constantly looking to understand the root cause of failure we can avoid false failures and continue to invest in our loonshot.
Tailor tools to the phase, i.e. innovators and soldiers need different management styles and approaches. Soldiers need structure, hierarchy, operating principles and innovators need autonomy and a flat structure.
Love and respect both your groups equally. Steve Jobs in his first stint at Apple did the exact opposite and it was responsible for the toxic work culture at Apple.
Work on maintaining the balance between efficiency and innovation and ensure transfers from new idea to on field operations. This may require creating new roles altogether. Transfer of in-lab tech to the field requires champions who can work with other people to ensure adoption and kickstart the feedback cycle that eventually perfects the loonshot further.
The book describes two kinds of loonshots. P type and S type. P type loonshots are driven by new products or technologies while S type are strategic innovations. When people see a P type moonshot they usually say it will never work (long distance telephony) and when they come across an S type moonshot (large stores in small towns), they say it will never make money. Bell labs and Walmart were examples of each respectively. Companies need to nurture both these types.
Companies often find themselves stuck doing more of what they have traditionally been good at. The author calls this milking the franchisee and it blindsides it from changes in technology, regulations, consumers tastes, etc. Visionary founder driven organisations suffer from what the author calls the Moses trap where they are trapped in milking state and are not constantly challenging their assumptions and nurturing loonshots.
Work on perfecting the decision making system rather than just focussing on outcomes. A systems mindset is about questioning assumptions and looking at both success (avoid the milking and Moses trap) and failures (seek out false failures) with curiosity.
I love it when books have a ‘thanks for making it this far in a book, here’s some bonus for you’. Loonshots are obsessive undertakings. When dealing with an obsession, it helps to focus on SRT – spirit relationship and time. Doing things that give meaning and purpose feeds into your spirit and is most fulfilling. Similarly, prioritise relationships that power you and make you who you are. Time is the most important resource we have and keeping it front and centre helps us stay on course or course correct as needed. SRT is a good tool to stop and attain some distance and reassess your situation.
I run a startup called Harmonize. We are hiring and if you’re looking for an exciting startup journey, please write to jobs@harmonizehq.com. Apart from this blog, I tweet about startup life and practical wisdom in books.